ALTHOUGH PAST races have earned Gov. Gray Davis his reputation as an aggressive campaigner, advisers say hell fight
the recall election with a strategy based on trying to fly above the circus swirling below. The
ballot will ask voters if they favor the recall of Davis. A second part will list replacement candidates. Should the recall
succeed, the person with the most votes on the second question will become governor. If Davis
is to survive the first recall election in California history, his advisers say, he must also show voters the Republican-led
recall vote will not solve Californias problems. It will, they say, merely aggravate those woes
by costing $66 millions and possibly leaving a small, fringe group in control of nations most populous state and the worlds
fifth-largest economy. Hes the only guy in the campaign that has the office and the only one
who really understands how destabilizing this is, said Davis media consultant David Doak. Hes determined to project an image
of stability, that things are under control and at the same time, fight for his job.
WHOS THE ENEMY? Davis is expected to avoid
taking on any of the other candidates directly, including Republican front-runner and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger at least
for now. Davis, one adviser said, has only one enemy, the recall itself.
Although he has won five statewide elections in his nearly 30-year political career, Davis has all but been eclipsed
in recent days as national focus has centered on the challengers who range from the sublime to the strange.
Running is Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the only other major Democrat in the race besides Davis. There are four
well-known Republicans state Sen. Tom McClintock, a two-time GOP nominee for state controller; businessman Bill Simon, the
partys 2002 nominee for governor; Schwarzenegger; and former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth. And then there is former
child actor Gary Coleman, comedian Gallagher and porn czar Larry Flynt. The frenzy has helped
drop Davis even further in the polls, which have recently gauged support for the recall at well above the 50 percent needed
to oust him.
DAVIS TO STAY OUT OF FRAY But supporters say dont count out the
60-year-old Davis, who has faced long odds before and found ways to succeed and can again.
The campaign against the recall has yet to begin, said Garry South, a longtime Davis adviser. The pro-recall
campaign has been waged for seven months and millions of dollars spent and you see it reflected in the polls and all the hype
surrounding the Arnold candidacy. Davis first order of business, his consultants say, is to
show voters there is no crisis in the Capitol and that hes in control of a functioning government. Toward that end, Davis
is likely to spend much of September hunkered down in his office, as he has in the past, considering the flood of bills coming
forward for his signature at the end of the legislative session. The idea is to let the challengers
fight among themselves, while Davis tries to remain gubernatorial and above the line of fire. Secondly,
Davis will talk about what he believes is wrong about the recall, particularly reminding voters of the cost an issue for many
taxpayers concerned about spending for other vital programs like schools, public safety and health care.
He will also hammer away at the uncertainty of the race and how such a huge field could produce a winner with
just a tiny portion of the vote a scenario that frightens many moderate voters who fear a takeover from either the right or
the left. While there may be some appeal in recalling the governor, Davis supporters point out,
there are no guarantees who the replacement will be. Voters could very well throw up their hands
and say, Im going to stick with this guy Im confused, Im paranoid, theres this circus going on and all the fighting forget
it, said Joe Cerrell, a Los Angeles-based Democratic consultant. HISPANIC VOTE COULD BE KEY Some Democratic leaders also believe Davis survival
depends on him retaining his traditional base of support among big labor and liberal urban voters. The key here, some say,
is Bustamante, who holds great sway over the states nearly 12 million Hispanic residents.
Bustamante, whose relationship with Davis recently has been strained, offered himself as a replacement Democratic candidate
last week but only as insurance if the Davis recall succeeds. No on recall, the Fresno native has repeatedly told voters.
Yes on Bustamante. Kam Kuwata, a Democratic consultant, said Bustamante has been careful to
keep No on recall ahead of his own political aspirations. Ive seen maybe 20 or so interviews with him since he declared, hes
been very consistent he is against the recall, he said. If Davis can keep Bustamante on his
side, Kuwata said, it will go a long way in defeating the recall.
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