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 ALTHOUGH PAST races have earned Gov. Gray Davis his reputation as an aggressive campaigner, advisers say hell fight the recall election with a strategy based on trying to fly above the circus swirling below.
       The ballot will ask voters if they favor the recall of Davis. A second part will list replacement candidates. Should the recall succeed, the person with the most votes on the second question will become governor.
       If Davis is to survive the first recall election in California history, his advisers say, he must also show voters the Republican-led recall vote will not solve Californias problems.
       It will, they say, merely aggravate those woes by costing $66 millions and possibly leaving a small, fringe group in control of nations most populous state and the worlds fifth-largest economy.
       Hes the only guy in the campaign that has the office and the only one who really understands how destabilizing this is, said Davis media consultant David Doak. Hes determined to project an image of stability, that things are under control and at the same time, fight for his job.

       
WHOS THE ENEMY?
       Davis is expected to avoid taking on any of the other candidates directly, including Republican front-runner and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger at least for now.
       Davis, one adviser said, has only one enemy, the recall itself.
Although he has won five statewide elections in his nearly 30-year political career, Davis has all but been eclipsed in recent days as national focus has centered on the challengers who range from the sublime to the strange.
       Running is Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the only other major Democrat in the race besides Davis. There are four well-known Republicans state Sen. Tom McClintock, a two-time GOP nominee for state controller; businessman Bill Simon, the partys 2002 nominee for governor; Schwarzenegger; and former baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth. And then there is former child actor Gary Coleman, comedian Gallagher and porn czar Larry Flynt.
       The frenzy has helped drop Davis even further in the polls, which have recently gauged support for the recall at well above the 50 percent needed to oust him.
 DAVIS TO STAY OUT OF FRAY
       But supporters say dont count out the 60-year-old Davis, who has faced long odds before and found ways to succeed and can again.  
  The campaign against the recall has yet to begin, said Garry South, a longtime Davis adviser. The pro-recall campaign has been waged for seven months and millions of dollars spent and you see it reflected in the polls and all the hype surrounding the Arnold candidacy.
       Davis first order of business, his consultants say, is to show voters there is no crisis in the Capitol and that hes in control of a functioning government. Toward that end, Davis is likely to spend much of September hunkered down in his office, as he has in the past, considering the flood of bills coming forward for his signature at the end of the legislative session.
       The idea is to let the challengers fight among themselves, while Davis tries to remain gubernatorial and above the line of fire.
       Secondly, Davis will talk about what he believes is wrong about the recall, particularly reminding voters of the cost an issue for many taxpayers concerned about spending for other vital programs like schools, public safety and health care.
       He will also hammer away at the uncertainty of the race and how such a huge field could produce a winner with just a tiny portion of the vote a scenario that frightens many moderate voters who fear a takeover from either the right or the left.
       While there may be some appeal in recalling the governor, Davis supporters point out, there are no guarantees who the replacement will be.
       Voters could very well throw up their hands and say, Im going to stick with this guy Im confused, Im paranoid, theres this circus going on and all the fighting forget it, said Joe Cerrell, a Los Angeles-based Democratic consultant.
       
HISPANIC VOTE COULD BE KEY
       Some Democratic leaders also believe Davis survival depends on him retaining his traditional base of support among big labor and liberal urban voters. The key here, some say, is Bustamante, who holds great sway over the states nearly 12 million Hispanic residents.
Bustamante, whose relationship with Davis recently has been strained, offered himself as a replacement Democratic candidate last week but only as insurance if the Davis recall succeeds. No on recall, the Fresno native has repeatedly told voters. Yes on Bustamante.
       Kam Kuwata, a Democratic consultant, said Bustamante has been careful to keep No on recall ahead of his own political aspirations. Ive seen maybe 20 or so interviews with him since he declared, hes been very consistent he is against the recall, he said.
       If Davis can keep Bustamante on his side, Kuwata said, it will go a long way in defeating the recall.

News on the economy?     How is Bush messing up the budget?    Bankruptcy information?
Why are mortgage rates going up?       Please give me Investment advise!          Can I invest with little moey?

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